The Premier League’s top four is the ultimate financial prize for English clubs, as a ticket to the European elite comes with the guarantee of huge participation funds. Newcastle United is an example of a club that has experienced the impact of qualifying for the UEFA Champions League in recent years. The Magpies outlaid more than $160 million in transfer fees in the summer of 2023 after their path to the UCL was secured.
The club failed to advance from the group stage in the subsequent competition, and in the league last season, they disappointed too as they failed to earn any form of European football. However, their 2023/24 demise, the experience they earned from it, and their under-the-radar position could see them return to Europe’s top table in 2025/26.
Here are the reasons why Eddie Howe’s Newcastle, against the odds, could finish in the Premier League’s top four come the end of the season.
Fewer fixtures
Newcastle’s lack of European football this season will mean they play fewer fixtures. The football odds today put them at 9/4 to finish in the top four, although the odds could shorten once their rivals face the intense fatigue that playing in Europe brings.
The football betting tips suggest Manchester United, Tottenham, and Chelsea will all be in battle with Howe’s team for a place in the top four and all will have European duties to balance alongside their league endeavors.
The Magpies will play fewer than 50 games and potentially as few as 40 across the season, while the teams playing in Europe will play a minimum of 48 and potentially around 60 if they go far in the European and domestic cup competitions.
The disparity in the overall number of fixtures the North East team will face compared to the teams playing European football will mean they have more rest in between Premier League games. This could see them needing to rotate less and thus secure points in tough fixtures where their rivals may not.
Eddie Howe's hopes for the new campaign:
— Newcastle United FC (@NUFC) August 16, 2024
“We have evolved the squad, that is not always necessarily in terms of personnel. We’re trying to do that all the time. We’re trying to add layers to our game. We’re trying to improve.
I think we have done that in pre-season. Obviously,… pic.twitter.com/gMhK5fBo1V
In the short term, fans may be disappointed that there will be no European trips this season, but come to the end of the season their patience could be rewarded with a place in the grandest section of continental football – if Howe’s team utilizes the advantageous hand they have been dealt.
Improved depth
Besides having a less congested fixture list this season, Newcastle have also improved the size of their squad, which sets them up to comfortably deal with injuries throughout the season. Howe had to deploy players out of position and had to play crucial games last season without key profiles due to a combination of fitness issues and a slim squad. However, several key signings should help them avoid similar problems this time around.
Lloyd Kelly was an incredibly shrewd free transfer acquisition that can cover the central defensive area – which was an area lacking depth in 23/24, as well as left back. Odysseus Vlachodimos is also an improvement on the backup goalkeeping position in case Nick Pope’s injury problems reoccur.
It is also a massive boost that Newcastle retained Bruno Guimaraes, as the club went into the summer expecting his release clause to be triggered by one of the clubs in the UCL.
©️🇧🇷 pic.twitter.com/njcgUoXXMp
— Newcastle United FC (@NUFC) August 17, 2024
Ultimately, Newcastle has gone into the new season relatively under the radar regarding the long-term top-four picture, which is ideal for them to thrive under reduced pressure.
The fact they will play in fewer fixtures than their rivals and have improved an already strong squad means they should be considered as serious contenders to rejoin the European elite come fall 2025.
Also read: Top 6 Teams in Premier League Since Ronaldo’s Departure from Man Utd
